Expected Goals vs Actual Goals
Separate what was expected from what happened.
Separate what was expected from what happened.
Two different quantities
Goals are observed outcomes. Expected goals are model-based estimates of chance quality. Their difference can be interesting, but it is not automatically a measure of skill or luck.
Start with the sample
A team can exceed its xG over a short run without establishing a persistent finishing advantage. Before drawing conclusions, specify the number of matches, provider, shot sample and whether penalties are included.
A useful workflow
For NQ’s planned research, compare totals and per-match rates over the same fixtures. Inspect shot types and personnel changes before proposing an explanation. Test whether any apparent pattern survives on a later, independent sample.
Our current display
The xG figures in NinetyQuant v0.1 are synthetic pre-match scoring inputs. They are not observed shot totals. No conclusions about current team form or actual finishing performance should be drawn from them.
Sources & further reading
Prepared by NinetyQuant. Numerical examples are illustrative. References explain general concepts and do not validate NQ’s demo forecasts.