THE NINETYQUANT RESEARCH DESK

Understand the numbers.

Definitions, assumptions and the questions behind football intelligence. Read the methods before you trust the models.

What is Expected Goals?

A closer look at chance quality, beyond the final score.

Relative strength, updated one result at a time.

Why the most likely outcome is never the only outcome.

A correct label can hide an unhelpful probability.

Measure the distance between probabilities and outcomes.

Do predicted probabilities match observed frequencies?

Separate what was expected from what happened.

Treat venue as a testable feature, not a fixed rule.

A future comparison source, with its own assumptions.